Genocide Watch

Nigeria is the most populous country of Africa. The country is, however, divided along religious, ethnic and socioeconomic fault lines, which split the country into a poor and predominantly Muslim North (ethnic communities: mainly Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri) and a rich and predominantly Christian South (ethnic communities: mainly Igbo, Yoruba, Ijaw, Ibibio and Tiv). During the Nigerian civil war (Nigerian-Biafran war), from 1966-1970, over a million Igbos died. This conflict originated from secessionist claims by Dr. Ojukwu, the Igbo leader and other peoples in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, to declare the independence of the Republic of Biafra. Biafra was only recognized by Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and a few other states. The Nigerian army encircled Biafra and starved it into submission. The southeast region is still restive and there are insurgencies among Niger Delta groups.

Currently, the terrorist insurgency of the radical Islamist movement, Boko Haram, in the North of Nigeria poses a new threat of genocidal massacres. Boko Haram declares its goal as eradication of all Christian and Western influence in Nigeria, an exclusionary ideology characteristic of a genocidal group. Since the summer of 2011, Boko Haram has struck many targets in Nigeria ranging from government buildings, especially the security sector, to schools and churches. The attacks have killed hundreds of people. Boko Haram proudly claims "credit" for these mass murders. The attack are aimed at polarizing relations between the Muslim North and the Christian South of Nigeria.

On 25 December 2011, several church bombings struck Nigeria. These Christmas Day attacks caused the death of at least 49 persons. The bombings were followed by a message from Boko Haram giving the Christians who are living in the North three days to leave the North. As a result thousands of Christians have fled the North. Moderate Muslims are also targeted by Boko Haram. On 8 and 9 April, 2012, there were more car bomb attacks aimed at churches. The Easter bombs killed 45 persons.

In 2011 at least 550 people died. More than 253 people were killed since January 2012. The deadliest attack took place on 20 January 2012 resulting in the death of at least 185 people. Boko Haram targets people based on their ethnicity and religion, including moderate Muslims (read more). 

Tensions are rising quickly. In a public announcement made by the president of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), he stated that the Christian community would react in "an appropriate manner", without giving details, but implying that forceful self-defence would be used. The moderate Muslim leader, the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Sa'ad Abubakar, assures that the attacks do not represent a conflict between Islam and Christianity. Nevertheless, the situation is highly alarming in the light of previous violent religious and ethnic clashes in Jos and other areas of the Center and North (read article by Greg Stanton).

The Nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan, has announced his determination to defeat terrorism by Boko Haram. There were peace talks between Boko Haram and the Nigerian government in March 2012, but after one week Boko Haram withdrew from further negotiations declaring that the government would never keep its promises. A problem is also that Boko Haram actually represents disparate command groups that will not necessarily obey the terms of any possible agreement.

Boko Haram is a nickname for Jama'atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lidda'awati Wal Jihad, which signifies "followers of the Prophet for the propagation of Islam and holy war" and which rejects any form of Western education. Although Boko Haram is not a branch of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), there are personal connections between both radical organizations. It is disturbing that both goals and tactics of Boko Haram are quite similar to branches of Al-Qaeda in the Middle East.

The early warning signs of genocidal massacres include the following;

• Risk of future instability is judged by Barbara Harff to be very high (read article by Harff).
• There have been previous genocidal massacres in Nigeria, such as those from 1967 to 1969 undertaken against the Igbo and those in 2010 on the Jos Plateau, without prosecution.
• During his candidacy for the presidency in January 2011, Goodluck Jonnathan denounced the "zoning" pact which is an informal agreement according to which the Nigerian presidency should rotate between Muslim north and Christian South. His subsequent election a few months later led to post-election violence in which hundreds of people died (read more).
• The division between the Muslim north and the Christian south of Nigeria also reflects large economic discrepancies, because the oil-rich south is the source of most of Nigeria's wealth.

Genocide Watch warns that future genocidal massacres are likely, based on religious and ethnic identity. Nigeria is at stage 6 of Genocide Watch's 8 stages of genocide: Preparation.

Relevant information should be sent to Nigeria@genocidewatch.org.

25 February 2008 "A Battle of Legal Briefs Rages Over '07 Nigerian Vote," by Lydia Polgreen, The New York Times

6 March 2006 "In Fight over Oil-Rich Delta, Firepower Grows Sophisticated," by Craig Timberg, The New York Times

27 February 2006 "Danger Signs in Nigeria," by The New York Times

31 January 2006 "Nigerian Militants Warn of Attacks," by Robyn Dixon, The Los Angles Times

23 January 2006 "A Country and Continent, Hanging in the Balance," by Lydia Polgreen, The New York Times

1 November 2005 "Taylor: Court Dismisses FG's Preliminary Objection," by Lillian Okenwa, This Day Online

16 June 2004 "Where the Land is a Tinderbox, the Killing is a Frenzy," by Somini Sengupta, The New York Times

7 May 2004 "Red Cross: 500 Dead in Nigerian Attack," by Associated Press, The Washington Times

1 April 2003 "Ethnic Dispute Stills Nigeria's Mighty Oil Wells," by Somini Sengupta, The New York Times

25 March 2003 "More Violence Hits Nigeria's Oil Delta," by Associated Press

24 March 2003 "Chevron Texaco Shuts Facilities in Nigeria Delta," by Associated Press, The New York Times

22 March 2003 "Nigerian Strife, Little Noticed, Is Latest Threat to Flow of Oil," by Somini Sengupta and Neela Banerjee, The New York Times

20 March 2003 "Nigerian Troops Move into Delta to Put Down Ethnic Riots," by Associated Press, The New York Times

1 December 2002 "Why is Nigerian Islam so Radical?" by Matt Steinglass, The New York Times

29 November 2002 "Fiery Zealotry Leaves Nigeria in Ashes Again," by Marc Lacey, The New York Times

26 November 2002 "Nigerian Calls for Death of Miss World Article Writer," by Glenn McKenzie, Associated Press

25 November 2002 "Death Toll in Nigeria Climbs Past 200 as Violence Spreads," by Dale Mbaohu, The Washington Post

24 November 2002 "Crime and Holy Punishment," by David Finkel, The Washington Post