Genocide Watch

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Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert: Syria 

(February 2012)-- Since the beginning of March 2011, the stability of the Syrian Arab Republic has degenerated at an alarming rate. Genocide Watch warns that massacres and mass atrocities against pro-democracy protesters and the civilian population are being committed by Syrian security forces under the command of the al-Assad government. Protests have turned violent as former Syrian troops have defected and formed the “Free Syrian Army,” which the Syrian government has called a “terrorist” organization, and used to justify its ever more violent repression of civilian protests. Whole cities have been shelled by Syrian tanks and mortars, and at least 6000 civilians have died. 

Since 1970, Syria has been under the repressive rule of the al-Assad family regime and the socialist Ba’ath Party. Tensions and political strife have been an on-going theme in Syria due in large part to the opposing ideologies of the regime’s ruling Alawite minority -- Baathist socialism- and the Sunni Muslim majority, which makes up three quarters of the country’s population, and largely favors adherence to Islamic law. After the Hama Massacre of 1982- a ‘scorched earth’ operation that killed 20,000 people to combat an attempted Sunni Muslim uprising- the government became increasingly authoritarian, relying on repressive policies to maintain control. Torture and killing of opposition leaders became policy. 

When Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, the Constitution was amended to permit his 34 year old son, Bashar al-Assad to take power after a one-party “election.” Dynastic successions are characteristic of Middle Eastern autocracies, as they are in North Korea. There was a brief “Damascus Spring” when political life became freer, and Bashar al-Assad promised reforms, but the only reforms were economic, freeing the economy from the stranglehold of state socialism. Political repression returned quickly. 

During the Arab Spring of 2011, which swept authoritarian regimes out of power across North Africa, pro-democracy protests began in Syria in early March. Violent repression followed quickly when official mukhabarat security forces opened fire on non-violent political protesters in the city of Daraa on March 18th, killing at least four people. The eruption of mass anti-government protests quickly spread throughout the country, and violent attacks on civilians by the al-Assad regime have continued to escalate in brutality throughout the past year. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, as of January 2012, the death toll in Syria now exceeds 5,400- over five times more than the estimated deaths in July 2011, when Genocide Watch issued its first Genocide Alert for Syria. Thousands more have fled as refugees to neighboring countries like Jordan and Lebanon. 

As the intense struggle for power continues between the al-Assad regime and opposition fighters, the government has resorted to the extreme measures of closing off borders and shutting down the internet. However, information on the mass atrocities has been obtained from victims and witnesses by the U.N. Human Rights Council, the BBC, Human Rights Watch, and the Arab League’s Commission of Inquiry. Video footage of the violence and witness testimonies have also surfaced on the internet. 

The evidence is now conclusive that the al-Assad regime is committing intentional crimes against humanity. Among the crimes the al-Assad regime is committing are: indiscriminant, widespread attacks on civilians, arbitrary detention of thousands in the political opposition, rape of detainees, widespread torture- including torture and murder of children- and denial of food, medicines and other essential resources to civilians. 

If the Alawite government of al-Assad believes it is about to lose all power in a zero-sum, winner take all revolution, its massacres could turn genocidal. Early warning signs and stages of genocide in Syria are:

• Prior unpunished genocidal massacres, such as those perpetrated by Assad’s father in Hama in the 1980’s; · Rule by a minority sect – the Alawite sect that supports Assad – with an exclusionary ideology
• Systematic human rights violations;
• Fear by the ruling elite that any compromise will mean total loss of their power;
• Deliberate targeting of particular groups -- Sunni Muslims and army defectors;
• Denial by the Syrian government of committing crimes against humanity, blaming “foreign-inspired terrorist gangs” for the armed conflict. 

In February 2012, a UN Security Council resolution proposed by the Arab League, calling for the resignation of President Assad and supporting an Arab League peace plan, was vetoed by Russia and China. A nearly identical UN General Assembly Resolution was then passed by a vote of 137 to 12 and the U.N. Secretary General denounced the al-Assad regime’s crimes against humanity. Navi Pillay, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, has issued a recommendation that the U.N. Security Council refer evidence of atrocities committed by government forces in Syria to the International Criminal Court. 

President al-Assad announced plans for a constitutional referendum to remove the clause that makes the Baath Party the sole party permitted in Syria, but it will have no impact on the intensifying violence. 

Genocide Watch offers the following recommendations: 

• The Arab League, Turkey, the Islamic Conference, and other nations should demand an immediate cease-fire in Syria, with full rights for non-violent protest. 
  
• The Arab League and Turkey should quickly create an Islamic Court to try Assad and other Syrian officials for crimes against humanity under Islamic law;
• The Arab League, Turkey, European Union, US and other nations should impose targeted national and regional sanctions against financial accounts, visas, and businesses owned by top officials of the Syrian regime and its army; 
• Arab and NATO nations should offer to cooperate with Russia to air lift and ship in humanitarian and medical relief supplies to all parts of Syria; 
• The UN General Assembly should pass another resolution demanding full protected access for UN and international aid workers and journalists to all areas of Syria.

Updates

24 May 2012 " UN: Syrian forces, opposition committing crime" by Zeina Karam and John Heilprin, Assosiated Press

15 May 2012 "Stuck in the middle- Syria's moderate voices," by Lyse Doucet, BBC News

14 May 2012 " Syrian Kurds Fleeing to Iraqi Safe Haven" By Samer Muscati, Human Rights Watch

13 May 2012 "Largely Unseen, Syria Carries Out Arrest Campaign," by Deborah Amos, NPR News

5 May 2012 "Trying to Mold a Post-Assad Syria From Abroad," by Neil MacFarquhar, The New York Times

6 May 2012 "America has given up on Syria," by James Kirchick, Haaretz.com

2 May 2012 “Syrian army guilty of 'war crimes' - Human Rights Watch,” by BBC

25 April 2012 "Violence in Syria's Capital Even With a Cease-Fire," by Neil MacFarquhar and Hwaida Saad, The New York Times

24 April 2012 "Syria running out of cash as sanctions take toll, but Assad Avoids economic pain," by Joby Warrick and Alice Fordham, The Washington Post

16 April 2012 "Syrian ceasefire leads to new challenges," by Jim Muir, BBC News

15 April 2012 "U.N. monitors arrive in Syria as killings continue," by CNN Wire Staff

10 April 2012 "Hopes for peace dashed as deadline for Syrian withdrawal passes," by the CNN Wire Staff

9 April 2012 "Syria: Extrajudicial Executions," Human Rights Watch

4 April 2012 "An Arab War-Crimes Court for Syria," by Aryeh Neier, The New York Times Op-Ed

2 April 2012 "Syrian Defectors: Torture of children, rape by Syrian army 'routine'," by Roy Gutman, McClatchy Newspapers

2 April 2012 "In rare interviews, Syrian ex-soldiers talk of killing civilians," by Roy Gutman, McClatchy Newspapers

28 March 2012 "Activists: No signs Syria carrying out peace plan," by Joe Sterling, CNN

27 March 2012 "Syria accepts Annan’s peace plan, but violence persists," by Alice Fordham, The Washington Post

21 March 2012 "UN Security Council backs Annan peace plan," by Aljazeera

20 March 2012 "Russia to Support UN Resolution on Syria," by Jenny Lei Ravelo, Devex

16 March 2012 "Planning for Syria's 'Day After'- Security, Rule of Law & Democracy," by the Public International Law & Policy Group

15 March 2012 "Statement on the Anniversary of Atrocities in Syria," by Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect

15 March 2012 "Syrian Refugees in Lebanon: Preparing for the Worst," by Refugees International

13 March 2012 "The Roles and Challenges of Women in the Syrian Revolution," by Kristi Scogna, Genocide Watch

7 March 2012 "Is Homs an Echo of What Happened in Srebrenica?" by Robert Fisk, The Independent

6 March 2012 "Syrian Whistleblower Says Detainees Were Tortured in Military Hospital," by Robert Mackey, The Lede

6 March 2012 "Assad's troops slaughtered us like sheep, claim refugees," by Alastair Beach and John Lichfield, The Independent

5 March 2012 "Syria eyewitness: Homs refugees tell of 'slaughter'," by Paul Wood, BBC

5 March 2012 "Syria Permits U.N. Visits, but Escalates Its Attacks," by Rick Gladstone, The New York Times

2 March 2012 "Activists Allege Execution-Style Killings In Syria," by The Associated Press, NPR

2 March 2012 "Red Cross convoy arrives in Homs bringing Baba Amr aid," by BBC

1 March 2012 "U.N. resolution slams Syria, urges aid," by Joe Sterling, CNN

24 February 2012 "Hit Assad where he's vulnerable," by David Ignatius, The Washington Post

16 February 2012 "Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert," by Kristi Scogna, Genocide Watch

16 February 2012 "UN General Assembly passes resolution endorsing plan for al-Assad to step down," by The CNN Newswire

15 February 2012 "With Cities Under Fire, Assad Sets Date for Syrian Referendum," by MacFarquhar and Cowell, The New York Times

14 February 2012 "Arabs open way for arming Syrians, civil war feared," by Blair and Samir, Reuters

14 February 2012 "Life in Syria unbearable, say refugees in Jordan," by AFP, The Khaleej Times

14 February 2012 "Syria refugees in Lebanon's Wadi Khaled Valley," by Euronews

13 February 2012 "U.N. Official Rebukes Syria Over Violence," by Gladstone and MacFarquhar, The New York Times

10 February 2012 "Making Sense of the U.N. Impasse on Syria," by Abiodun Williams, United States Institute of Peace

8 February 2012 "U.N. Rights Chief Says Action on Syria Urgent," by Robert Evans, Reuters

7 February 2012 "Syrian Siege of Homs is Genocidal, Say Trapped Residents," by Harding, Mahmood and Weaver, The Guardian

7 February 2012 "Syria crisis: Russia 'wants Arab League role'," by BBC News

6 February 2012 "U.S. closes Syria embassy after U.N. fails to act, crackdown continues," The Washington Post

5 February 2012 "Syrian Unrest After a Failure of Diplomacy," By Anthony Shadid, The New York Times

4 February 2012 "Obama to Syrian Civilians: U.S. Stands With You," The Associated Press

4 February 2012 "Russia and China Block U.N. Action on Crisis in Syria," by Neil MacFarquar and Anthony Shadid, The New York Times

3 February 2012 "Syrian security forces tortured children, rights group says," by the CNN Wire Staff

2 February 2012 "Syria Resolution: UN Close to Deal On Draft, Envoy Say," by Reuters, The Huffington Post

1 Fenbruary 2012 "Where is Syria crisis heading?" by Nick Thompson, CNN

25 October 2011 "4 Ways the U.S. Can Help in Syria," by Elliot Abrams, the Atlantic

24 October 2011 "Syria and US withdraw ambassadors," by Ewen MacAskill, the Guardian14 October 2011 "U.S. envoy to Syria warns of worsening violence," by Joby Warrick, The Washington Post

10 October 2011 "Civil war in Syria could ignite regional ethnic conflicts," by Adel Saffy, Gulf News

27 September 2011 "Syria unrest: Tanks storm restive town of Rastan," by BBC

26 August 2011 "Violence in Syria, Libya underscores need for convention on crimes against humanity," by Washington University in St. Louis

7 July 2011 "Genocide and Mass Atrocities Warning: Syria," by Dr. Gregory Stanton, Genocide Watch

3 May 2011 "Let's talk to Samantha Power," by Elihu Richter, The Jerusalem Post

31 March 2011 "Syria's Ethno-Religious Complexity and Potential Turmoil," by Martin W. Lewis

18 February 2010 "Sentencing of four Kurdish men in Syria," by DAD

December 2010 "The Enduring Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Axis," by Michael Rubin, AEI Middle East Outlook

18 December 2009 "Kurdish student arrested without a warrant in Syria, computer confiscated," by Khalaf Dahowd, ekurd.net 

14 December 2009 "Reshuffling the Cards? (I): Syria's Evolving Strategy," by International Crisis Group

26 November 2009 "Group Denial: Repression of Kurdish Political and Cultural Rights in Syria," by Human Rights Watch

26 November 2009 "End Persecution of Kurds," by Human Rights Watch

November 2009 "Mandaean Human Rights Annual Report," by The Mandaean Human Rights, The Mandaean AssociationsUnion

5 September 2009 "Syria: Chavez says Israelis must reject 'genocidal' leaders," by The Associated Press

5 September 2009 "Iraq sends thousands of police to Syria border to stop insurgents," by The Associated Press

29 July 2009 "US opens way to ease sanctions against Syria" by Sharon Otterman, The New York Times

28 July 2009 "No Exceptions for 'Honor Killings'," by International Crisis Group

12 June 2008 "Repression of Activists Continues Unabated," by Human Rights Watch 

4 June 2008 "Rising Protests Social, not Political," by Institute for War and Peace Reporting

22 May 2008 "Israel Holds Peace Talks With Syria," by Ethan Bronner, The New York Times

3 April 2008 "A Call From the Kurdish Yekiti Party of Syria," by Yekiti Party

17 March 2008 "Iraqi Refugees: Improve UN Outreach in Syria," by Refugees International

15 March 2008 "Silenced by the Men in White Socks," by Robert Fisk, The Independent

17 August 2004 "Syrian Court Releases Rights Activist on Bail," by Reuters